A memorandum dated October 22, 2026 declares oil production, refining, and logistics “essential to national defense” and invokes Section 303 of the Defense Production Act of 1950 to authorize purchases and financial support from the Department of War. It names no project and comes out 12 days before the midterm elections, with diesel prices high since the attack on Iran.
United Russia took 355 of 450 seats, the party’s largest ever, and 49 war veterans enter the Duma, more than the Communist caucus. The vote debuted in occupied Ukrainian territory and exit polls gave the party 49.4% where the electoral commission announced 57.9%.
On the last day of the Russian vote, the war’s largest drone wave struck the capital region, with two deaths and a damaged refinery. The election followed the script — and the cost of the war changed address.
About 1,800 industrial facilities have been damaged in Sudan’s war, including 650 factories completely destroyed, according to the country’s Ministry of Industry. A sweets factory in Khartoum has resumed production but is operating at 40% of its previous capacity, and its owner, Mansour Gaily, estimates losses at $1 million. Reopening is hampered by electricity shortages, a damaged transport network and rising import costs, as well as the destruction or looting of raw materials and equipment.
Long-range Ukrainian drones set fire to the Kstovo refinery in Russia’s Nizhny Novgorod region overnight, shortly after a major strike on another large refinery in Samara owned by the state-owned energy giant Rosneft, Russian state media reported, according to The Guardian. Ukrainian officials told the Kyiv Independent that they never agreed to a demand from Jared Kushner, the US president’s son-in-law, to pause refinery strikes for 30 days.
The Pentagon has put the damage to US military bases from Iranian strikes at a minimum of $5 billion, according to US officials cited by the Wall Street Journal. The Journal’s investigation identified 274 damaged structures at 24 installations with a US military presence during the war’s first six months, drawing on satellite imagery, Iranian military statements and interviews with US officials, according to the Tehran Times. An Associated Press analysis found more than 115 drone and missile strikes claimed by Iran or Iranian-backed militias that damaged or destroyed structures at 26 bases and other sites with US equipment through August, according to the Times of India.
Ukraine’s economic losses from explosions between January and October 2026 amounted to nearly 1.9% of the country’s nominal GDP, or about $4.28 billion, excluding the metallurgical sector, according to TASS calculations based on Ukrainian government reports.
The Lukoil oil refinery in Kstovo, in the Nizhny Novgorod region, was targeted by a Ukrainian attack overnight from Saturday to Sunday, according to Le Monde, which cited Ukrainian media including the RBC news agency. The regional governor, Gleb Nikitin, reported “a massive drone attack” during the night and on Sunday morning, in which “an industrial enterprise in the Kstovo district suffered major damage,” with no casualties according to preliminary information. Le Monde reported that the plant is one of Russia’s largest refineries, with a capacity of about 17 million metric tons of oil a year, or about 340,000 barrels per day.
An analysis by the Wall Street Journal identified 274 damaged structures across 24 installations with an American military presence, according to RT. An unnamed US official told the newspaper that the Pentagon estimates the damage to the bases at a minimum of $5 billion. According to the Pentagon’s latest estimate to Congress, the Iran war has cost $47.1 billion through October 16, excluding base damage.
US President Donald Trump’s oil and gas holdings rose an average of 43% since the end of 2025, during the eight-month war with Iran, according to the Jerusalem Post, which cites a report by congressional Democrats. His estimated holdings rose from a range of 12.6 million to 46 million at the end of 2025 to between 22.5 million and 81.6 million. Between March, after the war began, and the end of August, Trump’s accounts bought between 4.7 million and 17.5 million in oil and gas stocks, according to the report obtained by CBS News.
The European Commission approved a proposal to provide Ukraine with 45 billion euros in funding for 2027, of which up to 13.3 billion euros would go to budget support and 31.7 billion euros to weapons purchases, according to TASS. The commission also said on Friday it had set up a framework for European countries to approve the remaining 45 billion euros in loans to Ukraine, to be disbursed by the end of 2027, according to Reuters.
Russia’s deputy prime minister, Alexander Novak, said on Friday that Ukraine has resumed attacks on Russian oil refineries after a brief pause and warned that the strikes could reduce the diesel exports Moscow has planned, The Hindu reported. Novak also said Russia had shipped around 510,000 metric tons of diesel in October under the deal and plans a higher amount in November, around 2.15 million metric tons.
Binance said at least $2.54 billion in funds were frozen following a “potential security issue” and that it suspended all deposits and withdrawals as a precaution while it investigates the case, according to Al Jazeera. Founder Changpeng Zhao said the episode looks like a hack on the exchange, according to Al Jazeera, and Tether and Circle said they froze funds in response to the incident, according to The Guardian.
President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine halted attacks on Russian refineries for three days while Russia kept striking Ukrainian energy infrastructure during the energy truce. In an account to journalists at a closed-door briefing on Oct. 27, he said: “For three days we did not respond with strikes on Russian refineries while Russia was striking our energy sector,” and said he had proposed to respond calmly against other targets for at least 72 hours, without touching the refineries. The pace of Ukrainian attacks on refineries has fallen in recent weeks; the most recent were at Ryazan on Oct. 15 and in St. Petersburg on Oct. 18, according to the Kyiv Independent.
TotalEnergies booked $9.1 billion in third-quarter adjusted net income, doubling earnings from a year earlier, with historically high refining margins and the Middle East conflict driving up liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices and refining results, according to OilPrice.
Shell reported an adjusted profit of $10.8bn in the third quarter, up from $5.432bn a year earlier, and raised its buyback program to $5bn for the next three months, from $3bn in the previous quarter, the company said on Thursday. Profit doubled as the Middle East conflict drove up oil and gas prices, pushing the refining margin Shell had projected for the quarter to $42 a barrel, against $24 in the second quarter. Shell and Total posted their highest quarterly profit since 2022, according to Reuters.
The US military has already spent over US$47 billion on the war in Iran, more than 25 percent above the July estimate, according to Pentagon data obtained by Reuters.
US consumers are paying more than anyone in the world for the jump in fuel prices caused by the supply disruptions resulting from the US war on Iran, according to Reuters. A study by the Finland-based nonprofit Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air estimates US consumers have paid an average of $471 more for higher fuel prices since the war started on February 28.
Ukraine lost about 500 locomotives from January 2025 through September 2026, about 14% of its total, according to calculations by the Russian agency TASS based on information from the Ukrainian government. Since February 2022, Ukraine has lost approximately 600 locomotives, roughly 17% of its total, according to the same calculations.
Iran's central bank governor, Abdolnaser Hemmati, said the country's foreign exchange reserves are “in a good shape” and would last until the end of Donald Trump's administration, according to Mehr News.
The Israeli government approved on Sunday the allocation of 2.5 billion shekels for “urgent defense procurement”, to be funded through across-the-board cuts of 4.9% to government ministries’ budgets, less than two weeks before the October 27 elections, according to the Jerusalem Post. The cuts affect key ministries such as education, health and welfare, and a legal opinion attached to the proposal warned of the implications of the cuts, noting the need for the government to exercise restraint in making decisions during the election period. The legal opinion also raised concerns that approving the funds so close to the elections could create an irreversible situation for the incoming government and risk prioritizing party interests over the public interest.
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez said the war on Iran has already cost Europeans more than 100 billion euros, according to the Middle East Eye. Sánchez said the Spanish Congress ratified a social shield of more than 12 billion euros to protect citizens and the affected sectors, according to the same outlet. The statement was made after he arrived in Brussels for the European Union (EU) summit, according to 1news.az.
Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, asked EU leaders for at least €70 billion more and said the war will cost €155 billion next year, asking for at least €70 billion “for defence, for weapons, and for our resilience”. French President Emmanuel Macron is temporizing after Kyiv’s request, according to Le Monde.
US President Donald Trump said the war against Iran will end very soon, as soon as he wants it to, that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon and that oil prices will drop like a rock. The war has already caused an economic impact of roughly $265 billion in the United States, by the estimate of Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi, according to Opera Mundi.
Insurance costs for ships carrying oil across the Black Sea rose from about $200,000 to $2.5 million per vessel in recent months, according to OilPrice. According to the publication, the increase reflects mounting risks to commercial shipping after repeated attacks on vessels and port infrastructure. On October 6, drones struck two commercial vessels, sinking the Togo-flagged Alfa Watan and damaging the Palau-flagged Able; all 18 crew members aboard the Able were rescued.
Only 41.7 billion euros of the 100 billion euros in support reported by Berlin actually went to Ukraine, while 35.9 billion was spent in Germany and another 22 billion consists of future military commitments, according to the Kiel Institute.
Brent crude rose more than 5% to more than $105 per barrel, with U.S. crude up almost 5% to nearly $93, according to NBC News. The White House asked the Pentagon to draw up options for a possible resumption of attacks on Iran before the November 3 vote, according to NBC News and the Atlantic, cited by Quartz. In Brazil, oil prices surged on the threat of new U.S. attacks on Iran, according to Opera Mundi.
The World Bank projects a 2.1% contraction in 2026 for the economies of the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan, with Gulf Cooperation Council states shrinking by an average of 4.3%, according to the Jerusalem Post. Qatar and Kuwait are the hardest hit, with GDP contracting 20.9% and 14.6% respectively, while the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia are the least affected, at 1.6% and 2.0%. The bank attributes the decline to the closure of Hormuz: Gulf oil production fell from a prewar average of about 26 million to about 16 million barrels a day in March, according to The National.
The rial traded at more than 2.5 million rials to the U.S. dollar, according to the Associated Press (AP), in text republished by U.S. News — just 27 days after the previous record low of 2.2 million to the dollar on Sept. 2; the United States announced a new round of sanctions aimed at Iran on Monday and warned every country that does business with the country, according to AP, in text republished by ABC News.
Russia's draft budget for 2027 proposes 17.1 trillion roubles (US$ 202.58 billion) for defence, about 27% higher than the 13.5 trillion originally allocated, according to Reuters, in a text republished by the Times of India. The document cuts social policy by 7%, education by 6%, healthcare by 6.8% and the national economy by 7.4%.
Ukraine’s 2027 military spending is set at $108.3 billion, compared with $71.7 billion in its own revenues, and the draft leaves the country needing an additional $25.4 billion from Western sponsors to cover military spending alone, according to the Russian state agency TASS.
Russia plans to spend 17.1 trillion roubles ($202.58 billion) on defence in 2027, about 27% more than the 13.5 trillion roubles originally budgeted, and to cut social policy funding by 7%, education by 6% and healthcare by 6.8%, according to Reuters, in text republished by Euronext Live.
The European Union turned down Kyiv’s request for an additional 27 billion euros, including by speeding up payments as part of the 90-billion-euro loan, according to TASS, citing Bloomberg and European sources. The EU demanded continued reforms tied to the phased release of the first 45-billion-euro tranche, due later this year, with no early payment.
Russia plans to spend 17.1 trillion roubles ($202.58 billion) on defence in 2027, around 27% more than the 13.5 trillion roubles originally budgeted and the highest figure since the start of the war in Ukraine, in 2022, according to Reuters. The government raised its estimate for its 2026 budget deficit to 3.2% of gross domestic product (GDP), from 1.6% previously, the agency reported. The explanatory note for the 2027–2029 budget draft projects the 2026 federal deficit at 3.2% of GDP, or 7.335 trillion roubles, according to TASS.
The Zaporizhstal steelworks, which employs 8,500 people, shut down indefinitely after four waves of Russian attacks — two in August and two in September, according to the BBC. Russia fired 17 missiles at the plant, said Oleksandr Myronenko, chief operating officer of Metinvest, the steelworks owner; eight workers were killed and 31 were wounded.
The US Department of War announced a five-year contract, with two option years, worth up to $20.7 billion with Raytheon to produce Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAM), nearly doubling production compared to previous levels. RTX said the contract supports the annual production of at least 1,900 AMRAAM missiles.
Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree setting the authorized strength of the Russian armed forces at more than 2.44 million people, including 1.55 million service members. The ceiling is 15,500 people above the previous decree. According to the Kyiv Post, the document, No. 700, was published on Russia’s official legal information portal and is the fourth such decree signed this year, according to Russian state-owned media TASS.
The Trump administration has made legally binding commitments to spend almost the entire $400 million package Congress approved for military aid to Ukraine, preventing the money from expiring on September 30, according to U.S. News. By early this week, $307 million of the $400 million under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) had been obligated, and the remaining $93 million is to be locked in before the end of the fiscal year.
Iran’s Oil Ministry said about 50% of the damaged capacity at the South Pars gas field has returned to service, after the Israeli strike of 18 March 2026 that halted output at two refineries in the Asaluyeh complex and cut Iranian gas flows to Iraq, as The National reported at the time. The deputy oil minister for planning said production in that section resumed by 22 September 2026 and that the recovery program will be completed before winter begins, according to Mehr News. The field supplies about 75% of the country’s gas consumption and underpins nearly 80% of its electricity generation, according to a report by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty carried by GlobalSecurity.org.
The US national average price of a gallon of gasoline reached $4.48 on Friday, September 18, 2026, according to AAA as cited by The Associated Press, up roughly 17 cents in a week, 40 cents in a month and $1.27 from a year ago, at a time of year when prices usually fall. The national average diesel price hit $6.44 a gallon on Friday, 71% above its prewar level, with daily record highs since September 11, according to NBC News, which attributes part of the pressure to Russia’s extension of a diesel export ban through the end of September after Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy assets. Donald Trump said last week that the surge is an “inexpensive price to pay” for the war with Iran and publicly demanded that Volodymyr Zelenskyy stop striking refineries: “Mr. Zelenskyy has to do one thing. He has to stop knocking out diesel fuel in Russia,” he said, according to NBC News. A Fox News survey released on September 16, 2026, found that 61% of voters call gasoline prices a major problem for their household, against 48% two years earlier, and that nearly two-thirds, 63%, say the administration has made the economy worse, compared with 52% in September 2025. Early voting in the November 3 midterm elections is already under way, and G1 highlighted that the surge strains household budgets and deepens dissatisfaction with Trump.
Russia’s Defence Ministry said on Tuesday, 22 September 2026, that units of its “Centre” group of forces completed the encirclement of Ukraine’s main defence centre in Dobropillya, in the Donbas, claiming that two Ukrainian National Guard brigades — the 4th and the 15th — and the 425th Assault Regiment “Skala” were surrounded, in the ministry’s daily briefing carried by Sputnik. Ukraine’s General Staff did not confirm the encirclement: in the update released on Tuesday covering 21 September it recorded 248 combat clashes along the front, the highest number in the Pokrovsk sector, and listed Russian assaults in the Dobropillya, Novyi Donbas, Myrne and Bilytske directions. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US-based analysis centre, assessed on 21 September that Russia is maintaining the highest tempo of attacks on the front there, averaging 32 a day since 1 August, without establishing footholds.
The Kuibyshev refinery, one of the largest in Russia’s Samara region, was hit by drones overnight into Tuesday, 22 September 2026, and a major fire engulfed the plant, according to the Russian opposition outlet ASTRA, which geolocated footage filmed by residents, and the Kyiv Independent. Samara governor Vyacheslav Fedorishchev said “dozens of drones” struck industrial enterprises and that homes and vehicles were damaged, without reporting casualties. The refinery sits 765 kilometres from the Ukrainian border and can process up to 10,000 metric tons of oil a day, according to Reuters, and was already forced to halt operations by a strike on 10 June 2026. Russia’s Defence Ministry said it intercepted 297 drones over 14 regions and occupied Crimea — a figure that has not been independently verified — and the federal air transport agency restricted flights in Samara and other cities in the region overnight.
Russia struck industrial sites in Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih and Pavlohrad in the southeastern Dnipropetrovsk region overnight into Tuesday, September 22, regional governor Oleksandr Hanzha said. Three people were killed and six injured in Dnipro, where a business property and a warehouse were badly damaged, and the governor of the Poltava region, Vitalii Diakivnych, reported a “massive” attack on an industrial enterprise and a critical infrastructure facility. A strike on an energy facility left nearly 100,000 consumers without power in the northern Chernihiv region, the local distribution company said. Ukraine’s air force said the overnight barrage included an unspecified number of Oniks anti-ship and ballistic missiles, as well as four cruise missiles and 212 drones. Russia’s Defense Ministry said it hit enterprises in the metallurgical and chemical industries, the fuel and energy sector and the defense industry complex, along with port infrastructure and vessels. With the front line largely stalled more than four and a half years into the war, Moscow and Kyiv have increasingly struck businesses, ports and logistics targets in recent months, Reuters noted.
President Donald Trump’s approval rating fell to 32 percent, the lowest of his political career, according to a four-day Reuters/Ipsos poll that closed on Sunday. The drop comes from Republican voters souring on the cost of living amid the war with Iran: 73 percent of Republicans approve of his job performance, down from 82 percent a week earlier, and only 17 percent approve of his handling of the cost of living. For the first time, Republicans who disapprove of his handling of that issue outnumber those who approve, 51 percent to 44 percent. The poll gathered 1,277 US adults and has a margin of error of 3 percentage points. Reuters attributes the deterioration to sharply higher gasoline and diesel prices since the war against Iran began in February; US congressional elections are set for 3 November.
The US Treasury Department sanctioned VTB, Russia’s second-largest bank, on Monday for maintaining correspondent banking relationships with already sanctioned Iranian banks and helping Tehran evade US sanctions. According to Treasury, the bank set up correspondent accounts in Iranian rials and Russian rubles and now ranks among the most comprehensively sanctioned banks in the world. The move follows August sanctions on the Dubai branch of Egypt’s Banque Misr and September measures against Turkey’s Golden Global Yatirim Bankasi, part of a secondary sanctions campaign against foreign institutions sustaining Iran’s economy.
Russia’s government has zeroed out grain export duties through 31 December 2026, according to a decree published on the country’s official legal information portal and cited by TASS. The floating tariff on wheat, barley and corn is suspended, and duties on sunflower oil and meal are capped at August levels — 7,748 roubles ($92.13) per tonne for oil and 312 roubles ($3.71) for meal. The Agriculture Ministry says the measure cuts costs and gives exporters predictability amid the restructuring of export logistics.
Moscow’s refinery, owned by Gazprom Neft, has halted crude oil processing after fires broke out at both of its primary crude distillation units following a Ukrainian drone attack on 20 September, according to three industry sources cited by Reuters. The sources said repairs and the restart of operations could take several weeks. Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said on Sunday that an industrial facility on the refinery’s premises had been damaged in the attack. The AVT-6 unit has a capacity of 21,400 metric tons per day, 53% of the total, and EURO+, 18,800 tons per day, the remaining 47%. According to the sources, the refinery processed 11.6 million tons of crude in 2024, about 230,000 barrels per day, and produced 2.9 million tons of gasoline, 3.2 million tons of diesel and 1.3 million tons of bitumen. Gazprom Neft did not respond to Reuters’ request for comment.
Ukraine has 608 locomotives damaged since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022: 533 belonging to the state railway company Ukrzaliznytsia and 75 to private companies, according to the Minister for Reconstruction, Infrastructure and Transport, Mykola Kalashnyk. The country is negotiating a “railway coalition” agreed at the Carpathian Eight meeting in Bukovel, with Austria, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia and Czechia, and has secured USD 100 million in grant funding under the RELINC project to buy used locomotives on international markets, plus EUR 130 million from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) for energy resilience. Slovakia will transfer three electric locomotives.
Ukraine launched more than 1,600 drones at Russia in the early hours of Sunday, about 450 of them towards Moscow, on the last day of Russia’s parliamentary election, according to Russian officials in reports by Reuters and Times Now; Moscow’s mayor, Sergei Sobyanin, called it “the most massive” attack on the capital and said one of the drones shot down on approach hit the Kapotnya refinery, run by Gazprom Neft, as well as a residential building. Russia’s Defense Ministry says it downed 1,100 drones nationwide, including over Crimea and the Black Sea, and Moscow region governor Andrei Vorobyov said 249 were brought down over the region and that two people were killed. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed the operation hit an oil facility and a logistics site; Vnukovo airport suspended all operations and Sheremetyevo imposed “temporary restrictions”.
Iran’s Statistical Center reported that the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) fell 10.1 percent between 21 March and 20 June, the first quarter of the Persian calendar, compared with the same period a year earlier, according to AFP and Al Jazeera. Oil and gas extraction fell 26.4 percent, GDP excluding oil dropped 4.6 percent and twelve-month average inflation reached 69.9 percent, according to the official figures.
Ukrainian drones hit an oil refinery in Moscow and killed two people on election day in Russia, according to Reuters, G1, the Hindustan Times and Mehr News; the mayor confirmed damage to the refinery. Moscow alleges election interference, the Hindustan Times reports, and Russia’s defence ministry said it downed every missile heading for the region, according to TASS.