Three Chinese theater commands moved as one formation from the Ryukyus to Basilan in the same fortnight that Keen Sword put Japanese anti-ship missiles and American launchers on Yonaguni, 110 kilometers from Taiwan. Each capital published its own count, and the counts measure pressure at home more than ships at sea.
Customs inspection as a weapon: why the likeliest escalation over Taiwan is legal before it is military.
Taiwan’s armed forces want to acquire more than 1,400 coastal surveillance and reconnaissance drones, over 200,000 coastal attack drones and 1,320 one-way attack uncrewed surface vessels. Parliament passed on August 27 the law providing NT$ 240 billion over six years, with procurement priority for domestically produced low-cost, high-performance uncrewed systems. US company Maritime Tactical Systems announced that Taiwan’s coast guard will buy 25 of its uncrewed vessels, to be made in the United States and Taiwan, and the country aims to become an Asian hub for drone production free of Chinese components, capitalizing on its lead in artificial intelligence and semiconductors.
Beijing expanded its maritime presence around Taiwan, deploying coast guard patrols from the island’s eastern approaches to waters near Quemoy and remote Dongsha Island, the South China Morning Post reported. Taiwan’s Coast Guard Administration said late on Saturday that it had deployed the patrol vessel Jian to shadow the Chinese formation, led by the Hushi. Taipei denounced the patrols as an effort to “manufacture a fictional administrative presence” and said Beijing’s actions violate international law and undermine regional peace and stability.
The commander of the United States (US) Army in the Pacific, General Ronald Clark, said that the 2027 window for a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan remains valid as a readiness benchmark. “The question is, is the window still valid? The answer for us at USARPAC is yes,” he told an industry conference in Hawaii on Tuesday, Breaking Defense reported; according to the commander, US Army Pacific is positioning equipment, materiel and personnel on a rotational basis across the first and second island chains west of the International Date Line, with the goal of being ready by April 2, 2027.
Taiwan’s defence minister Wellington Koo accused China of waging cognitive warfare after Beijing marked the anniversary of the island’s handover with satellite images of Taipei and a military propaganda poster, according to Reuters.
Mainland China's state media and armed forces staged a concerted campaign on Sunday to mark Taiwan Restoration Day, the anniversary of the end of Japanese rule, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported. State broadcaster China Central Television (CCTV) released a 42-second video with aerial views of Taiwan captured by the commercial Jilin-1 satellite constellation, captioned “This is the Taiwan province of China.”
Taiwan’s coast guard identified the suspected militia fishing boat as Minfudingyu 07902, which came as close as about 2.7 nautical miles outside the island’s restricted waters on August 16, confirming details in a Reuters report, according to The Hindu.
Taiwan’s defence ministry confirmed for the first time funding for the US Indo-Pacific Command to send a retired general and observers to the Han Kuang war games, according to the South China Morning Post (SCMP). NT$82.4 million (US$2.5 million) was allocated for the 2026–2027 program, with NT$41.219 million this year.
Taiwan said on Sunday, October 18, that it had driven away 16 Chinese vessels, including coast guard, research and fishing ships, involved in simultaneous operations that the island’s coast guard calls “maritime harassment”. According to the statement, an “unusually large” number of Chinese vessels took part in the coordinated operations around Taiwan’s main island and Pratas, a disputed island to the southwest.
Taiwan will acquire a NT$46.55 million (US$1.45 million) artificial intelligence (AI) system that analyzes satellite imagery covering 100 sq km (38.6 square miles) within minutes and identifies People’s Liberation Army ships, aircraft and missile launchers, according to the South China Morning Post, which cites the island’s defense ministry. The contract took effect on September 25, and the system is expected to be completed by the end of April.
Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te said on Saturday that Taiwan seeks to deter war by increasing its defense spending. In his National Day speech, he said that the aim of increasing investment in national defense is to deter war, not provoke it, according to the Japan Times.
Paraguay’s technology minister, Gustavo Villate, said on Thursday that sanctions imposed by Beijing would only accelerate joint projects with Taiwan and wrote in a social media post that the relationship with Taipei would “never be on the negotiating table”. On Monday, China sanctioned Villate and Belize’s foreign minister over the two countries’ ties with Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its own territory.
Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te said on National Day that the aim of increasing defense spending is to deter war, not to provoke. Lai's government has earmarked a record NT$1.1 trillion (US$34.5 billion) in defense spending for 2027, more than 3% of GDP. Lai said China continues to press with military and grey-zone activities in an attempt to alter the status quo across the Taiwan Strait.
Japan and the United States will rehearse moving anti-ship missiles, air defences and communications networks onto islands near Taiwan this month in an expanded military exercise, the South China Morning Post reported.
The European Parliament approved a tougher stance on China, describing it as a decisive enabler of Russia and calling for continuous naval presence and joint exercises in and around the Taiwan Strait, according to the South China Morning Post. The report urges swift action to counter Beijing’s industrial policy, which it describes as an existential threat to the European Union. The vote saw 454 lawmakers in favour, 86 against and 110 abstentions.
Wanying “Heather” Zhang, a 34-year-old realtor in California, was arrested at Los Angeles airport on October 4, 2026, as she was preparing to board a flight to Shanghai, accused of acting as an unregistered agent of a foreign government, according to the Hindustan Times. The FBI says she travelled to Seattle in 2025 at the direction of Chinese officials and later sent photos, video and license plate information of the Taiwanese leader’s son and his family, according to The Hindu. The person being watched was Ting-Yu Lai, an engineer in his 30s who lives in the United States.
The United States delivered to Taiwan the first two new F-16V Block 70 fighter jets, the first of 66 aircraft approved for sale by Washington in 2019, according to RT. The two aircraft arrived on Friday.
The first two F-16V Block 70 fighter jets from a batch of 66 US-made planes ordered by Taiwan in 2019 landed at Chihhang Air Base near Taitung on the island’s mountainous east coast at midday Friday local time. The aircraft flew via Hawaii and Guam, according to DW, and the jets, made by Lockheed Martin as part of an $8 billion sale agreed seven years ago, are equipped with advanced avionics and radar systems.
Taiwan’s first two F-16V Block 70 fighter jets are expected to arrive within a few days, according to Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) legislator Wang Ting-yu. Wang said the two aircraft have taken off from Hawaii and will land at Chihhang Air Base in Taitung either Friday or Saturday. The sale of 66 F-16V Block 70s was approved by the United States in 2019, with deliveries originally scheduled to begin in 2023.
Taiwan’s defence minister said US arms sales to the island remain unchanged and that Taipei remains in talks with Washington over individual deals, on Tuesday, September 29, 2026, according to The Associated Press (AP), in a text republished by The Hindu. A record 14 billion arms package to the island, however, remains stalled. The United States paused the 14 billion deal after a May summit in Beijing between Trump and Xi Jinping, and China pressed Washington to halt the arms sales to the island, according to AP, in a text published by Mercury News.
Taiwan aims to quadruple its stockpile of combat ammunition from 30 days to 120 days under a six-year, NT$27.59 billion procurement program, according to the Taipei Times. The Ministry of National Defense (MND) allocated NT$7.3 billion for the program after the Executive Yuan approved it on Sept. 3, according to the paper. The program must be accelerated to replenish ammunition depleted during military exercises and drills, which have become more frequent in the past few years, according to strategic planning director Lieutenant General Huang Wen-chi, cited by the paper.
Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs called Chinese President Xi Jinping’s remarks to Donald Trump in Washington on national reunification and territorial integrity a distortion of the facts, according to Reuters. The ministry said the statements reflect “the consistent Chinese approach of distorting facts and unilaterally conveying its position and claims,” that only the Taiwanese people decide the island’s future, and accused China of disturbing peace and stability, G1 reports. Xi had urged Trump to keep to the “correct position” of opposing Taiwan independence, Reuters added.
Chinese President Xi Jinping arrives in Washington on Wednesday, 23 September 2026, for a three-day state visit, with formal talks scheduled for Thursday, 24 September, and a visit to the US National Archives on Friday, 25 September, and is expected to press President Donald Trump to halt arms sales to Taiwan, invoking the third of the joint communiqués the two countries signed in 1982, according to Reuters, which spoke to three sources familiar with the discussions. In that communiqué, Washington said it intended to gradually reduce arms sales to Taiwan and did not seek long-term weapons sales to Taipei; an accompanying memorandum by then president Ronald Reagan conditioned that willingness on China’s continued commitment to a peaceful solution of differences over Taiwan. A package worth about US$ 14 billion in arms for Taiwan has been on hold for months. After the summit with Xi in Beijing in May 2026, Trump said he was keeping the package in abeyance and described it as “a very good negotiating chip”, according to Reuters. The sources said China has also asked the United States to stop deliveries of weapons already ordered by the island, and has offered help in pressing Iran over the war in the Middle East in exchange for concessions. The South China Morning Post, citing sources, reported that Washington is weighing postponing the announcement of new arms sales to Taiwan until after the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Shenzhen in November and the Group of 20 (G20) summit in Florida in December; one source said Trump considered delaying the decision until late 2028 or January 2029 but backed off after loud opposition from China hawks. In Taipei, Le Monde quoted Su Tzu-yun, a researcher at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research: “We need to stay alert, but not panic, because the United States’ geopolitical interest remains keeping China at arm’s length from Taiwan.” Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry said it was closely monitoring the talks.
Two New Zealand Navy vessels — the frigate Te Mana and the tanker Aotearoa — transited the Taiwan Strait on Friday, September 18, as part of a three-month Indo-Pacific deployment, the country’s Defence Force said on Monday, September 21. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon called the transit “a routine activity,” carried out “in international waters” and under international law, and said he did not expect any reaction from China, New Zealand’s largest trading partner. China’s Defence Ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment, and Taiwan’s Defence Ministry said the strait is an international waterway and that it does not proactively disclose the movements of allied forces. Reuters reported, citing one source, that the Aotearoa was tracked by Chinese forces when it last transited the strait in November 2025.
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi meets Donald Trump on Tuesday, September 22, on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York, two days before the US president’s summit with Xi Jinping at the White House, The Japan Times and Reuters reported. Takaichi wants to press Trump on Japan’s positions over Taiwan and trade so that he does not lean toward conciliation with China, according to The Japan Times. Reuters notes that Takaichi angered Beijing in 2025 by saying Tokyo could be drawn into a conflict over Taiwan, and that analysts say allies fear Trump may offer concessions to Xi in return for an economic win he could showcase before November’s midterm elections. Takaichi, South Korean President Lee Jae-myung and Trump are all scheduled to speak at the General Assembly on Tuesday, Reuters reported.
Taiwan broke ground on an advanced semiconductor packaging park anchored by TSMC, according to Reuters.
US and Chinese negotiators are holding the final preparatory rounds ahead of the Donald Trump–Xi Jinping summit, according to The Hindu, which also reports a US proposal for an ‘AI dialogue’. The New York Times flags arms sales to Taiwan as the issue that could unravel the deal.
Beijing links Xi Jinping 24 September visit to Washington to a freeze on new arms sales to Taiwan, according to Kyodo; no Chinese official confirmed the linkage.
Taipei raises alert level on four strait islets