Crude oil exports from Persian Gulf producers averaged nearly 12 million barrels per day in September and the first 20 days of October, below the pre-war level of approximately 18 million bpd, Rystad Energy estimated.

The consultancy assesses that the security situation in and near the Strait of Hormuz has deteriorated even as flows recovered, with a higher number of attacks on tankers in recent weeks. In Rystad’s view, a comprehensive settlement between the United States (US) and Iran would require addressing Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions, Tehran-backed armed groups in the region and the security of maritime shipping, while also taking into account Israel’s security interests.