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Geopolitics before the headlines
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India’s largest refiners have begun seeking alternative crude cargoes for November delivery and may cut purchases of Russian oil after the US sanctions law raised the threat of tariffs of up to 100% on goods from countries that buy Russian energy, Bloomberg reported, citing people involved in the discussions.

Russian imports have already eased and are expected to average about 1.9 million barrels a day in September, more than 35% of the total and the lowest since April, according to Kpler. India is the world’s third-biggest crude buyer and had taken more than half of its imports from Russia in some recent months. Iraq has emerged as the main alternative: 535,000 barrels a day in the first half of September, against an August average of 163,000 barrels a day, also according to Kpler. Replacing the Russian volumes will be hard: Urals delivered to India cost about US$133 a barrel at the end of last week, according to Argus Media, and negotiations for November cargoes begin in the final week of this month.