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The blockade nobody would call a war

Customs inspection as a weapon: why the likeliest escalation over Taiwan is legal before it is military.

20 Sep 2026

The single-interlocutor doctrine

Why the Gulf prefers to deal with whoever decides alone — and what that does to multilateral diplomacy.

20 Sep 2026

Russian gas returned to Europe through the back door

Indirect routes, blending at Turkish terminals, and an embargo that exists on paper more than on invoices.

19 Sep 2026

Moldova: the election Europe pretended not to be contesting

Transnistria as leverage, energy as a campaign argument, and a result too close to be stable.

19 Sep 2026

The Arctic is no longer hypothetical

Four ports, one route, and the first year commercial transit outpaced military traffic.

18 Sep 2026

Rare earths are not the bottleneck. Refining is.

The map of Western dependency is not in the mines; it is in fourteen processing plants.

17 Sep 2026

What India learned from refusing to choose

Multi-alignment as statecraft, tested across three consecutive crises.

16 Sep 2026

NATO without Article 5

A cold reading: what remains of the alliance if its central clause is treated as ambiguous.

15 Sep 2026