SAGIRE
Geopolitics before the headlines
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Oil prices fell on Tuesday, 22 September 2026, on expectations that Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz and that Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline is back in service, then erased much of the drop after US President Donald Trump told the United Nations General Assembly he believes a deal with Iran is possible after November’s midterm elections.

Brent, the benchmark for two thirds of the world’s oil, fell 2.64 per cent to $97.69 a barrel at 3.09pm UAE time, while West Texas Intermediate dropped 3.20 per cent, according to The National, of Abu Dhabi. Earlier, Brent had fallen 3 per cent to $97.43 and US crude as much as 3.5 per cent to $92.40, according to NBC News. After Trump’s speech, US crude was back around $96 and Brent briefly rose above $100 again, NBC News reported. “I believe we will make a deal right after the election because it does not make sense for them not to,” Trump told the assembly. “Oil prices will come plummeting down, even lower than they were at the start of the conflict.” Iran’s semiofficial Fars news agency called the reports about the reopening of Hormuz “unreliable and untrue”, according to NBC News, which says it has not confirmed them. Only two visible commercial vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, 21 September 2026, against about 125 a day before the war began on 28 February 2026, according to preliminary shipping data cited by The National. The US national average diesel price hit a record on Tuesday at $6.52 a gallon, up 82 per cent since the start of the year, according to NBC News.