The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) estimated that an extreme El Niño event would cause a cumulative loss of at least 2% of regional gross domestic product (GDP) over three years, half of it in the first year, and could add up to 4.8 million people to poverty by the end of the decade compared with a scenario without the phenomenon.

ECLAC’s third Special Report, released on 21 September 2026, points to critical vulnerability in energy, fishing, agriculture and infrastructure and recommends ten public policy measures, according to the agency’s press release. Projections by the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) cited in the report indicate a more than 90% probability that the phenomenon will reach very high intensity in the northern hemisphere’s fall and winter of 2026-2027 and a 69% probability of historic magnitude, a “Super El Niño”; for the October-December 2026 quarter, the probability of a rainfall deficit is 60%, and 31.1% of the region’s territory is on high alert, according to Xinhua.